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Now we have more countries with nuclear weapons, we have major potential flashpoints. We also, even though we are not in the Cold War … you do have the possibility of some sort of miscalculation or accident…

Samantha Pitts-Kiefer

Rogue elements within a state’s security forces enrich dozens of kilograms of uranium. It’s then assembled into a crude nuclear bomb. The bomb is transported on a civilian aircraft to Washington D.C, and loaded onto a delivery truck. The truck is driven by an American citizen midway between the White House and the Capitol Building. The driver casually steps out of the vehicle, and detonates the weapon. There are more than 80,000 instant deaths. There are also at least 100,000 seriously wounded, with nowhere left to treat them.

It’s likely that one of those immediately killed would be Samantha Pitts-Kiefer, who works only one block away from the White House.

Samantha serves as Senior Director of The Global Nuclear Policy Program at the Nuclear Threat Initiative, and warns that the chances of a nuclear terrorist attack are alarmingly high. Terrorist groups have expressed a desire for nuclear weapons, and the material required to build those weapons is scattered throughout the world at a diverse range of sites – some of which lack the necessary security.

When you combine the massive death toll with the accompanying social panic and economic disruption – a nuclear 9/11 would be unthinkably bad. And yet, Samantha reminds us, we must confront the possibility.

Clearly, this is far from the only nuclear nightmare. We also discuss:

  • In the case of nuclear war, what fraction of the world’s population would die?
  • What is the biggest nuclear threat?
  • How concerned should we be about North Korea?
  • How often has the world experienced nuclear near misses?
  • How might a conflict between India and Pakistan escalate to the nuclear level?
  • How quickly must a president make a decision in the result of a suspected first strike?
  • Are global sources of nuclear material safely secured?
  • What role does cyber security have in preventing nuclear disasters?
  • How can we improve relations between nuclear armed states?
  • What do you think about the campaign for complete nuclear disarmament?
  • If you could tell the US government to do three things, what are the key priorities today?
  • Is it practical to get members of congress to pay attention to nuclear risks?
  • Could modernisation of nuclear weapons actually make the world safer?

Keiran Harris helped produce today’s episode.

Highlights

Really there’s two types of material that we should worry about, one is nuclear material, so that’s material that could be used in a nuclear device. So think Hiroshima — that was a nuclear bomb — think about that kind of device being used by a terrorist. And that material is actually widely available. 22 countries around the world have nuclear material, it’s in hundreds of sites, some of it’s not secure. So you have that type of material, nuclear material, that could be used in a nuclear bomb.

You also have what are called radioactive sources. So these are things like caesium and cobalt, these sources that can be used for let’s say, medical uses. So blood irradiators use the radiation to irradiate the blood, and there are other research purposes for which you would use radioactive sources. Those are in many many more countries around the world, well over 100 countries and in thousands and thousands of sites including in the US and including in areas of the world where there’s conflict and also active terrorist groups.

When it comes to North Korea, we know they have developed nuclear weapons. We are unsure of their ability to actually launch a nuclear missile, say, deep into the US territories. But we know they have developed capabilities and those capabilities are increasing. But what you have is you have two leaders who are playing a game of verbal chicken over their nuclear programs. You have dangerous rhetoric, you have escalating threats.

At some point, one of the sides is going to have to stop this escalation. And talk of some sort of military action against North Korea, I think, is extremely dangerous in terms of the North Korean leader perceiving a threat that might have to be preemptive — in terms of a US potential military attack on North Korea to prevent their program from progressing that could lead then to some sort of retaliation. Really what you have there is a ticking time bomb, and it has to be walked back. There has to be an adult in the room to walk that back and not lead us into some accidental crisis that precipitates a nuclear exchange.

If you think about some sort of group or another country spoofing an attack that would cause a response — that’s a real threat. And the fact is that the US and Russia have over a thousand nuclear weapons together that are just ready to launch within minutes. And if the US were to believe it was under attack from Russian nuclear weapons, there would only be 10 or so minutes for a US president to make a decision to respond before being hit.

And so you have this intense time pressure on a US leader to respond with a nuclear strike. So you combine all those pieces together, the crisis, the tension, the lack of dialogue, the lack of cooperation, the increased rhetoric with the potential for a false warning and the cyber threat. I don’t have to tell the listeners but that just hopefully sounds to them like a very scary scenario that we should be trying to avoid and walk back.

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About the show

The 80,000 Hours Podcast features unusually in-depth conversations about the world's most pressing problems and how you can use your career to solve them. We invite guests pursuing a wide range of career paths — from academics and activists to entrepreneurs and policymakers — to analyse the case for and against working on different issues and which approaches are best for solving them.

The 80,000 Hours Podcast is produced and edited by Keiran Harris. Get in touch with feedback or guest suggestions by emailing [email protected].

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