Comments on: What are your chances of getting elected to Congress, if you try? https://80000hours.org/2015/07/what-are-your-odds-of-getting-into-congress-if-you-try/ Wed, 14 Dec 2022 10:16:33 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.2 By: Peace Out Anon https://80000hours.org/2015/07/what-are-your-odds-of-getting-into-congress-if-you-try/#comment-150 Mon, 06 Jul 2015 03:44:00 +0000 https://80000hours.org/?p=34379#comment-150 This seems like a good analysis to me. But I’m skeptical of the value of making this information broadly available to e.g. random people on the politics subreddit. Having more people aim to get in to Congress doesn’t seem like it will generate value. The key is to get the right people in to Congress: people who are informed, reflective, benevolent, etc. etc.

]]>
By: Ben Kuhn https://80000hours.org/2015/07/what-are-your-odds-of-getting-into-congress-if-you-try/#comment-147 Fri, 03 Jul 2015 05:07:00 +0000 https://80000hours.org/?p=34379#comment-147 In reply to robertwib.

Oh, ok. Were you writing this for people who were already Congressional staffers and wanted to run? It seemed like it was for a more general audience. If you’re not already a Congressional staffer and considering becoming one because it will help you run for Congress, you also need to factor in the chance of failing because you exit the “wants to run for Congress” group after being a staffer, which make the 1 in 40 odds (for staffers who “want to run” according to your guess) optimistic.

]]>
By: robertwib https://80000hours.org/2015/07/what-are-your-odds-of-getting-into-congress-if-you-try/#comment-146 Thu, 02 Jul 2015 21:36:00 +0000 https://80000hours.org/?p=34379#comment-146 In reply to Ben Kuhn.

Yeah… I think that reinforces my point. If you became a Congressional staffer and still thought you wanted to run and had a shot against your colleagues, you would be competing among that 1 in 8 who feel that way? Or perhaps I’m misconstruing you.

]]>
By: Ben Kuhn https://80000hours.org/2015/07/what-are-your-odds-of-getting-into-congress-if-you-try/#comment-145 Thu, 02 Jul 2015 20:32:00 +0000 https://80000hours.org/?p=34379#comment-145 In reply to robertwib.

I think the problem is that you’re implying “aspir[ing] to be elected” is some exogenous and immutable characteristic of Congressional staffers. I think it’s probably reasonable to assume that people who don’t aspire to be elected will not be elected, but also that aspiring to be elected is endogenous and depends on how you compare to the entire pool of Congressional staffers, and so that’s the relevant reference class.

]]>
By: robertwib https://80000hours.org/2015/07/what-are-your-odds-of-getting-into-congress-if-you-try/#comment-144 Thu, 02 Jul 2015 18:40:00 +0000 https://80000hours.org/?p=34379#comment-144 In reply to StataTheLeft.

Hey StataTheLeft, thanks for finding tenure figures for Senate staffers, that’s a big help! Hopefully it’s similar for the House.

30% turnover = 3.33 years spent on average. It’s actually a bit higher than that because sometimes the same person will stop being a staffer, do something else, and then return (this cycling suppresses the total number of ex-staffers).

“I’d guess that more like 1 in 3 who are promising enough to get elected would try.”

I should have been clearer that I want to focus only on those who want to get elected, and are promising enough that this plan should be taken seriously. My guess is that the only people who really aspire at this level to get elected are the ones with the necessary characteristics, but other people don’t share this intuition.

That said, your guesses are reasonable and not that far from mine in the scheme of things.

I think the next step would be to survey a bunch of Staffers or HLS students on a) do they aspire to join Congress b) do they think they have what it takes to do so.

Better data on the total number of ex-staffers would be helpful, though I think we are pretty close to the right number now.

]]>
By: robertwib https://80000hours.org/2015/07/what-are-your-odds-of-getting-into-congress-if-you-try/#comment-143 Thu, 02 Jul 2015 18:35:00 +0000 https://80000hours.org/?p=34379#comment-143 In reply to Ben Kuhn.

I’m treating people who aspire to be elected and people who actually might be electable as almost completely overlapping groups. As I say further down, if you can’t imagine yourself being a politician this means you basically don’t have any chance. Do you think this is a mistake?

]]>
By: Ben Kuhn https://80000hours.org/2015/07/what-are-your-odds-of-getting-into-congress-if-you-try/#comment-142 Thu, 02 Jul 2015 06:29:00 +0000 https://80000hours.org/?p=34379#comment-142 > To make this advice more useful to you, we need to look at the success rate for a different set of people: Congressional staffers who actually aspire to one day become members of Congress… My intuitive guess, which could be wrong, is that 1 in 8 staffers are in this group.

I’d be worried about naively applying this correction to calculate one’s personal odds of getting–it seems likely that desire to become a member of Congress is substantially shaped by one’s chances of getting elected. E.g., it could be the case that, even though you’re technically only competing with 1/8 of the staffers for spots, those 1/8 are the most competent 1/8–so you’re really competing with all the staffers to be in the top 1/330 or whatever.

]]>
By: london4 https://80000hours.org/2015/07/what-are-your-odds-of-getting-into-congress-if-you-try/#comment-141 Thu, 02 Jul 2015 02:38:00 +0000 https://80000hours.org/?p=34379#comment-141 Can you make this into a quiz? I’d be curious to see what my chances statistically are being female, a religious minority, and my education and work-related experiences.

]]>
By: StataTheLeft https://80000hours.org/2015/07/what-are-your-odds-of-getting-into-congress-if-you-try/#comment-140 Thu, 02 Jul 2015 02:25:00 +0000 https://80000hours.org/?p=34379#comment-140 CONGRESSIONAL STAFFERS.

1 in 40 staffers who try to get elected being successful sounds surprisingly high to me so I tried to plug in my own numbers.

*30% of Senate staffers have been in the Senate for <=1 year (http://www.congressfoundation.org/storage/documents/CMF_Pubs/cmfsenatesalarystudy2001.pdf). This suggests about 30% turnover for Senate staff. Assuming House staff is the same, this means that about 0.3*15,000 = 4,500 staffers leave each year. I'd guess that means 4,500*36 = 162,000 present and past Congressional staffers between the ages of 40 and 75. So slightly reduces your chances.

*Over the last five congresses, there have been an average of 82.6 freshman members. (Compiled from Wikipedia). So over 36 years, there are 18*82.6 = 1,487 openings over someone's peak years. 19% of those are former staffers, so 283 opportunities for 162,000 staffers. So this gives me 1/572 chance for a random staffer. A bit more skeptical than your numbers.

*If you assume 1/8 try to get elected, then 1 in 72 who try end up getting elected. I'd guess that more like 1 in 3 who are promising enough to get elected would try. So my number is closer to 1 in 191.

*You may want to differentiate between District and DC staffers. I'd guess nearly all staffers who become members are DC staffers.

]]>